Mathematically Impossible…
Where exactly do we stand right now after last night’s landslide victory by Hillary Clinton? Exactly where we were on Monday many would say. If you read CNN on Monday you’d see that they were heavily implying that Hillary had a fighting chance, while more progressive sites like MSNBC were markedly behind Obama. It’s always been said that the media is the 4th arm of government, right? So let’s use the 4th arm of government to help us understand the mathematics of where we are today and where Hillary needs to go to win the nomination.
No matter what happened in West Virginia we still have Barack leading in every range of numbers you look at – he leads in Delegates, Superdelegates, Popular Vote, # of Primaries won, etc., etc., etc., and so on down the line, so why AGAIN is Hillary still in the race? Well, because just like the Bush family and their need for control, Hillary believes she MUST be in the White House and she MUST be President. I think it would be wonderful if she won, honestly, but right now I am very much upset with her tactic to win. And here’s why, in support of the first paragraph above, and of course to get off the Hillary Slamming train.
Sorry… I had to.
There are 5 Primaries remaining between now and June 3rd – May 20th the battlegrounds are trampled on in Kentucky and in Oregon, with each state giving 51 and 52 delegates respectively. With Hillary currently at 1,718 and Barack at 1,884 if Hillary won BOTH states next week by 100% of the votes Barack would still lead – though he’d loose a bunch of Superdelegates, of which Hillary would have to swing 63 to vote in her favor to simply catch up to Barack next week. Impossible I think, simply because it is mathematically impossible, unless Barack simply shoots himself in the foot, inserts foot in mouth, and grows a yellow stripe on his back, Hillary can not win 100% of BOTH contests.
So, Okay, let’s split it 50/50 next week. That would take Hillary to 1,770 and Obama to 1,935. For the sake of argument let’s assume all the remaining Superdelegates take a vacation in the South of France until the Convention.
Next we have Puerto Rico. La Isla del Encanto, and where it’s as Sunny as can be right now, and the Latin American pride of Boricuas will almost certainly cause them to vote for Hillary – us Latinos KNOW what I am referring to. If Hillary were to win 100% of Puerto Rico, again, she make a tiny dent. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates to give, so that on top of 1,770 takes her to 1,825 delegates to Barack’s 1,935 – still she needs 90 Supers to decide on her.
We leave her and Barack at 50% and we now go to Hillary having 1,798 and Barack having 1,962.
The two final Primary fights are in Montana and South Dakota. Let’s forget the fun math here, and simply hit EACH of them with 50% – Montana has 16 delegates to give, while South Dakota has 15 leaving Hillary at 1,813, and Barack at 1,978.
Both candidate would then need the Supers to return from their fun at the French Riviera and decide which way they want to swing. Putting all the trash talking aside, if the contests were split 50/50 which they most likely will be collectively the tough decision will be WHO CAN win in November, right?
Let’s leave that argument for now, and do the same 50/50 split with remaining Superdelegates. According to CNN’s math there are 240 Superdelegates left to split up between them. If we did this final split, Obama is at 2,098 while Hillary stays below the Yellow line at 1,933.
So, what will happen? Mathematically, I think we all know what is going to happen. But it’s not math that will decide who wins this nomination. It’s the Superdelegates, so as Barack picks up more and more each day, and more consistently, this will strengthen his resolve and his backers to come out of the closet (no pun intended), while if Obama starts loosing Superdelegate support it will help Hillary with her numbers.
So it’s mathematically, even still, to predict which way the Supers will move. Anyone have the time to think up a mathematical model for that? Perhaps using some chaos theory?
Until next time.
Calculations courtesy of CNN.COM using CNN’s very own Delegate Counter Simulator.
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